As summer comes to an end, many people are asking the same question: Have we had a COVID-19 summer surge in 2026?
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), COVID-19 is still circulating across the United States, and the agency continues to monitor activity closely. While the virus has settled into a more predictable seasonal pattern, the CDC does not rely on case counts alone to determine whether the country is experiencing a surge. Instead, it tracks several indicators, including wastewater levels, emergency department visits, hospitalizations, laboratory testing, and the variants that are circulating.
Based on these surveillance systems, COVID-19 activity has continued through the summer, but the CDC emphasizes that trends can vary by region and change over time.
How Does the CDC Know If COVID-19 Is Increasing?
Unlike earlier in the pandemic, fewer people are reporting results from at-home COVID-19 tests. Because of this, the CDC now uses several different surveillance systems to understand what the virus is doing.
These include:
- Wastewater surveillance
- Emergency department visits
- Hospital admissions
- Laboratory testing
- Death certificate data
- Genomic surveillance
By looking at all of these sources together, public health officials can identify increases in COVID-19 activity even when reported case numbers are incomplete.
Why Do Summer Increases Happen?
COVID-19 no longer follows only a winter pattern. The CDC has found that the virus can also increase during the summer months.
Several factors may contribute to these seasonal increases, including changing levels of immunity in the population and the appearance of new virus variants. However, the CDC notes that summer waves have generally been smaller than the large surges seen during the early years of the pandemic.
What About New Variants?
The virus that causes COVID-19 continues to change over time.
The CDC’s genomic surveillance program analyzes virus samples collected across the country to identify which variants are circulating and how common they are becoming. This information helps public health officials detect changes that could affect how easily the virus spreads or how well existing immunity protects against infection.
The CDC explains that most new variants do not significantly change the overall public health risk, but ongoing monitoring is important because new variants can become more common over time.
Should You Still Be Paying Attention?
Although COVID-19 is no longer causing the large nationwide waves seen earlier in the pandemic, it continues to spread throughout the year.
Older adults, people with weakened immune systems, and those with certain chronic medical conditions remain at higher risk for severe illness. If you develop symptoms such as fever, cough, sore throat, or congestion, consider testing—especially if you will be around someone who is at higher risk.
The CDC also encourages eligible individuals to stay up to date with COVID-19 vaccination recommendations.
What This Means for You
As summer 2026 comes to a close, the CDC continues to monitor COVID-19 activity across the country. Rather than asking whether there is one nationwide surge, public health officials look at trends in multiple surveillance systems to understand where activity is increasing and whether new variants are changing the situation.
While COVID-19 remains much less disruptive than it was during the height of the pandemic, it has not gone away. Staying informed, recognizing symptoms, and following current public health guidance remain important ways to protect yourself and those around you.
Source
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. COVID-19 Surveillance. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/covid/php/surveillance/index.html. Accessed August 17, 2026.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Variants and Genomic Surveillance. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/covid/php/variants/variants-and-genomic-surveillance.html. Accessed August 17, 2026.
